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Raptors vs. Nuggets prediction and picks, November 4, 2026

Toronto Raptors (4-3) at Denver Nuggets (3-3), , Ball Arena in Denver.

On the board since November 4, 2026 · numbers refreshed Nov 4, 2:16 PM ET

What we're picking for Raptors-Nuggets

  • SpreadRaptors +4.5 −110Model 66.0% vs 52.4% to break evenWide edge +13.6Posted
  • TotalUnder 230.5 −115Model 51.4% vs 53.5% to break evenNo edge −2.1Posted
  • MoneylineRaptors to win +160Model 53.6% vs 38.5% to break evenWide edge +15.1Posted
DraftKings market line set against the model's fair line
MarketOpenNowModel fairModel minus market
Nuggets spread−5.5−4.5+1.3+5.8
Total points231.5230.5229.9−0.6
MoneylineTOR +160 / DEN −192TOR −115 / DEN +115

Looking ahead: Raptors vs. Nuggets

  • The Raptors sit at 4-3 overall and 2-3 in their last 5, putting up 119.1 while giving up 111.4 a game.
  • The Nuggets sit at 3-3 overall and 3-2 in their last 5 games, scoring 113.3 points and allowing 115.7 a game
  • Each game, the Raptors run 105.7 possessions (5th in the league) and the Nuggets 100.2 (26th). Our 229.9 total comes in 0.6 points below the 230.5 shown.
  • The Nuggets put up 113.3 a game on a 47.0% field-goal rate, while the Raptors allow 111.4.
  • The Raptors have 2 players out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle.
  • The Nuggets have 2 players out: Spencer Jones, Julian Strawther.
  • The model gives Raptors 1.3-point favorites a 53.6% chance to win.

Player injury status

Raptors injuries

  • Out Kawhi Leonard F · knee · expected return Nov 23
  • Day-To-Day Jakob Poeltl C · shoulder · expected return Nov 4
  • Out Nate Bittle C · foot · expected return Nov 9

Nuggets injuries

  • Day-To-Day Cameron Johnson F · ankle · expected return Nov 4
  • Day-To-Day Alpha Diallo F · wrist · expected return Nov 4
  • Out Spencer Jones F · hamstring · expected return Nov 11
  • Out Julian Strawther G · knee · expected return Nov 29

Official league injury report: 12:45 PM ET, Nov 4 PDF.

This season's team numbers

Per gameTORDEN
Points119.1 7th113.3 14th
Rebounds44.1 15th42.5 19th
Assists28.7 5th26.3 16th
Field goal45.8% 17th47.0% 9th
3-point31.5% 27th37.0% 8th
Free throw74.4% 25th80.2% 9th
Turnovers14.1 5th15.8 16th
Possessions105.7 5th100.2 26th

Small type shows league rank (7 and 6 games played). The better side appears in bold.

Standings at a glance

TORDEN
Conference rank4th East10th West
Record4-33-3
Games back2.53
Home / road2-1 / 2-21-2 / 2-1
Last 10, streak4-3, W13-3, L1
Point differential+7.7−2.3
Projected wins47.941.2
Playoff chance91.4%48.4%

Projections come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining season; the full table appears on NBA futures.

Leaders this season

Raptors leaders

PlayerPosGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%FT%
Scottie BarnesF733.624.47.95.047.612.569.6
RJ BarrettF732.420.76.14.049.129.758.8
Kawhi LeonardoutF226.019.57.51.532.428.6100.0
Immanuel QuickleyG731.718.03.95.640.834.584.4
Ja'Kobe WalterG729.411.94.12.645.038.663.2

Nuggets leaders

PlayerPosGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%FT%
Jamal MurrayG638.327.35.55.748.651.981.4
Nikola JokicC636.822.09.79.047.222.688.5
Christian BraunG636.215.24.02.253.040.680.0
Aaron GordonF630.211.56.02.835.834.684.6
DeMar DeRozanG625.210.72.02.740.422.283.3

Starters and rosters projected

Raptors starters

  1. F RJ Barrett
  2. F Scottie Barnes
  3. F Collin Murray-Boyles
  4. G Immanuel Quickley
  5. G Ja'Kobe Walter
Full Raptors roster (16)
No.PlayerPosHeightAge
12Kyle AndersonF6' 8"33
4Scottie BarnesF6' 8"25
9RJ BarrettF6' 6"26
77Jamison BattleF6' 7"25
Nate BittleC7' 0"23
8Jaden BradleyG6' 3"23
22Allen GravesF6' 8"20
32Trayce Jackson-DavisF6' 9"26
2Kawhi LeonardF6' 6"35
55Alijah MartinG6' 2"24
30Collin Murray-BoylesF6' 7"21
19Jakob PoeltlC7' 0"31
5Immanuel QuickleyG6' 2"27
23Jamal SheadG6' 1"24
18Malachi SmithG6' 4"26
14Ja'Kobe WalterG6' 4"22

Nuggets starters

  1. F Aaron Gordon
  2. F Cameron Johnson
  3. C Nikola Jokic
  4. G Jamal Murray
  5. G Christian Braun

Starting fives come from the Nov 2 game for both teams; about 30 minutes before tip, confirmed lineups post.

Full Nuggets roster (17)
No.PlayerPosHeightAge
3Marvin Bagley IIIF6' 10"27
0Christian BraunG6' 6"25
7Trevon BrazileF6' 10"23
10DeMar DeRozanG6' 6"37
11Alpha DialloF6' 7"29
32Aaron GordonF6' 8"31
14DaRon Holmes IIF6' 9"24
13Bryce HopkinsF6' 7"24
23Cameron JohnsonF6' 8"30
15Nikola JokicC6' 11"31
21Spencer JonesF6' 7"25
5Tyus JonesG6' 0"30
27Jamal MurrayG6' 4"29
9Ryan NembhardG5' 11"23
22Zeke NnajiF6' 10"25
1Julian StrawtherG6' 6"24
00Cam WhitmoreF6' 6"22

Season series plus the last five games

Head-to-head this season

2025-26 meetings

Regular season
Raptors 0, Nuggets 2
Points per game
Raptors 109.0, Nuggets 113.5
DateGameMatchupScoreWinner and margin
Mar 20, 2026Regular seasonRaptors at Nuggets115-121Nuggets by 6
Dec 31, 2025Regular seasonNuggets at Raptors106-103Nuggets by 3

Raptors last five

DateOpponentResultClosing spreadATS
Nov 2@ ClippersW 125-118−6.5W
Nov 1@ LakersL 125-131+3.5L
Oct 30vs MagicL 114-121−5.5L
Oct 28vs MagicW 129-99−5.5W
Oct 25@ TimberwolvesL 94-117+3.5L

Nuggets last five

DateOpponentResultClosing spreadATS
Nov 2vs Trail BlazersL 110-118−4.5L
Oct 30@ SunsW 127-120−4.5W
Oct 28@ PelicansW 104-91−4.5W
Oct 26vs WarriorsL 114-134−6.5L
Oct 24vs PelicansW 141-135−11.5L