Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction and picks, November 4, 2026
Dallas Mavericks (4-3) at San Antonio Spurs (5-2), , Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on ESPN.
On the board since November 4, 2026 · numbers refreshed Nov 4, 2:16 PM ET
Our Mavericks-Spurs selections
- SpreadMavericks +11.5 −115Model 56.9% vs 53.5% to break evenClear edge +3.4Posted
- TotalUnder 227.5 −111Model 52.7% vs 52.6% to break evenSlim edge +0.1Posted
- MoneylineMavericks to win +411Model 25.9% vs 19.6% to break evenWide edge +6.3Posted
| Market | Open | Now | Model fair | Model minus market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs spread | +12.5 | −11.5 | −9.1 | +2.4 |
| Total points | 229.5 | 227.5 | 226.3 | −1.2 |
| Moneyline | DAL +411 / SA −545 | DAL +287 / SA −287 | ||
Looking at the Mavericks vs. Spurs matchup
- The Mavericks have a 4-3 record and are 3-2 in their last 5 games. They score 112.3 points and allow 112.3 a game.
- The Spurs have a 5-2 record and are 5-0 over their last 5 games. They score 117.6 points and allow 108.3 a game.
- Possessions per game: the Mavericks 101.7 (20th in the league), the Spurs 104.9 (9th). The 227.5 on the board is 1.2 points above our 226.3 total.
- The Spurs score 117.6 a game with a 46.5% field-goal rate, while the Mavericks give up 112.3.
- For the Mavericks, 5 are out, including Max Christie and Santi Aldama. Also out are Tarik Biberovic, Dereck Lively II and more.
- For the Spurs, 2 players are out: Tobias Harris, Jayden Quaintance.
- The model has Spurs 9.1-point favorites and puts their win chance at 74.2%.
Player injuries
Mavericks injuries
- Out Max Christie G · hip · expected return Nov 6
- Out Santi Aldama F · knee · expected return Nov 4
- Out Tarik Biberovic F · heel · expected return Nov 12
- Out Dereck Lively II C · foot · expected return Nov 12
- Out Sergio de Larrea F · knee · expected return Nov 6
Spurs injuries
- Out Tobias Harris F · calf · expected return Nov 9
- Out Jayden Quaintance F · knee · expected return Dec 3
Official league injury report: 12:45 PM ET, Nov 4 PDF.
Season team stats
| Per game | DAL | SA |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 112.3 16th | 117.6 10th |
| Rebounds | 42.4 21st | 46.7 8th |
| Assists | 25.9 17th | 27.4 8th |
| Field goal | 48.4% 4th | 46.5% 15th |
| 3-point | 33.1% 21st | 34.8% 15th |
| Free throw | 77.7% 14th | 79.0% 10th |
| Turnovers | 17.0 22nd | 13.4 2nd |
| Possessions | 101.7 20th | 104.9 9th |
Small type shows league rank (7 and 7 games played). The better side appears in bold.
Current standings
| DAL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Conference rank | 9th West | 5th West |
| Record | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Games back | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Home / road | 2-2 / 2-1 | 3-2 / 2-0 |
| Last 10, streak | 4-3, L1 | 5-2, W5 |
| Point differential | 0.0 | +9.3 |
| Projected wins | 37.6 | 52.6 |
| Playoff chance | 29.7% | 90.9% |
Projections come from 10,000 simulations covering the season's remaining games; the NBA futures table shows the full breakdown.
Leaders this season
Mavericks leaders
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | F | 6 | 33.7 | 25.2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 48.6 | 23.3 | 88.9 |
| Kyrie Irving | G | 5 | 28.8 | 21.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 52.7 | 39.0 | 100.0 |
| P.J. Washington | F | 7 | 34.3 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 1.1 | 40.0 | 29.5 | 72.0 |
| Naji Marshall | F | 4 | 26.8 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 43.5 | 18.8 | 42.9 |
| Daniel Gafford | F | 7 | 24.0 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 75.0 | 100.0 | 66.7 |
Spurs leaders
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | F | 7 | 31.3 | 25.7 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 46.9 | 26.2 | 73.8 |
| Dylan Harper | G | 7 | 32.4 | 18.3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 48.5 | 36.0 | 87.5 |
| De'Aaron Fox | G | 7 | 30.6 | 15.9 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 58.2 | 40.0 | 78.1 |
| Stephon Castle | G | 7 | 28.9 | 14.7 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 40.8 | 34.0 | 75.0 |
| Devin Vassell | G | 7 | 31.1 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 41.4 | 30.0 | 94.1 |
Projected starters and team rosters
Mavericks starters
- F Caleb Martin
- F Daniel Gafford
- F P.J. Washington
- F Cooper Flagg
- G Max Christieout
Full Mavericks roster (18)
| No. | Player | Pos | Height | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Santi Aldama | F | 7' 0" | 25 |
| 13 | Tarik Biberovic | F | 6' 7" | 25 |
| 0 | Max Christie | G | 6' 5" | 23 |
| 30 | Moussa Cisse | C | 6' 11" | 24 |
| 1 | Walter Clayton Jr. | G | 6' 4" | 23 |
| 55 | Sergio de Larrea | F | 6' 7" | 20 |
| 32 | Cooper Flagg | F | 6' 9" | 19 |
| 21 | Daniel Gafford | F | 6' 10" | 28 |
| 9 | Jett Howard | G | 6' 8" | 23 |
| 11 | Kyrie Irving | G | 6' 2" | 34 |
| 14 | Morez Johnson Jr. | F | 6' 9" | 20 |
| 33 | Tobi Lawal | F | 6' 8" | 23 |
| 2 | Dereck Lively II | C | 7' 1" | 22 |
| 3 | Naji Marshall | F | 6' 6" | 28 |
| 16 | Caleb Martin | F | 6' 5" | 31 |
| 10 | Zaccharie Risacher | F | 6' 8" | 21 |
| 8 | Marcus Sasser | G | 6' 1" | 26 |
| 25 | P.J. Washington | F | 6' 7" | 28 |
Spurs starters
- F Victor Wembanyama
- G De'Aaron Fox
- G Devin Vassell
- G Stephon Castle
- G Dylan Harper
The listed starters for both sides are drawn from their Nov 2 game. Confirmed lineups arrive about 30 minutes before tipoff.
Full Spurs roster (17)
| No. | Player | Pos | Height | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Harrison Barnes | F | 6' 8" | 34 |
| 15 | Maliq Brown | F | 6' 9" | 22 |
| 11 | Carter Bryant | F | 6' 7" | 20 |
| 5 | Stephon Castle | G | 6' 6" | 22 |
| 30 | Julian Champagnie | F | 6' 7" | 25 |
| 4 | De'Aaron Fox | G | 6' 3" | 28 |
| 17 | Ja'Kobi Gillespie | G | 6' 1" | 22 |
| 2 | Dylan Harper | G | 6' 5" | 20 |
| 23 | Tobias Harris | F | 6' 8" | 34 |
| 3 | Keldon Johnson | F | 6' 6" | 27 |
| 25 | David Jones Garcia | F | 6' 4" | 24 |
| 7 | Luke Kornet | C | 7' 1" | 31 |
| 0 | Jordan McLaughlin | G | 6' 0" | 30 |
| 22 | Jayden Quaintance | F | 6' 10" | 19 |
| 10 | Tarris Reed Jr. | C | 6' 10" | 23 |
| 24 | Devin Vassell | G | 6' 5" | 26 |
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | F | 7' 4" | 22 |
Last five results and season meetings
Meetings between the teams this season
- Oct 24 Spurs at Mavericks, 122-106 (Spurs won)
- Nov 4 Mavericks at Spurs, prediction
2025-26 meetings
- Regular season
- Mavericks 0, Spurs 4
- Points per game
- Mavericks 115.0, Spurs 134.2
| Date | Game | Matchup | Score | Winner and margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | Regular season | Mavericks at Spurs | 120-139 | Spurs by 19 |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Regular season | Mavericks at Spurs | 125-138 | Spurs by 13 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Regular season | Spurs at Mavericks | 135-123 | Spurs by 12 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Regular season | Spurs at Mavericks | 125-92 | Spurs by 33 |
Mavericks last five
| Date | Opponent | Result | Closing spread | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | vs Kings | L 100-115 | −7.5 | L |
| Oct 30 | vs Rockets | W 116-111 | +5.5 | W |
| Oct 28 | vs Thunder | W 120-96 | +4.5 | W |
| Oct 26 | @ Heat | W 113-109 | +7.5 | W |
| Oct 24 | vs Spurs | L 106-122 | +14.5 | L |
Spurs last five
| Date | Opponent | Result | Closing spread | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | vs Jazz | W 119-97 | −16.5 | W |
| Oct 31 | vs Timberwolves | W 121-111 | −12.5 | L |
| Oct 28 | @ Jazz | W 117-111 | −13.5 | L |
| Oct 27 | vs Kings | W 130-103 | −19.5 | W |
| Oct 24 | @ Mavericks | W 122-106 | −14.5 | W |