NBA best bets today
Every pick on the Wednesday, November 4 card, biggest edge first. The top of this list is where our chance and the price disagree most.
Live record 42 picks posted graded after the finalsLedger since November 4 never edited- 1
Spread Clippers +5.5 −111
Heat at Clippers 10:30 PM ET
Our fair line sits at Clippers -1.5, while the book has +5.5.Per game, the point differential reads Clippers -7.3, Heat -5.7.
Wide edge +16.0Our chance 68.6%, break-even 52.6%Posted - 2
Spread Raptors +4.5 −110
Raptors at Nuggets 9:00 PM ET
We set our fair line at Raptors -1.5, and the book shows +4.5.Out for the Nuggets are Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther.
Wide edge +13.6Our chance 66.0%, break-even 52.4%Posted - 3
Spread Pistons -2.5 −106
76ers at Pistons 7:00 PM ET
Our fair line is Pistons -7.5, and the book sits at -2.5.The 76ers are missing Dominick Barlow and Ariel Hukporti.
Wide edge +12.4Our chance 63.9%, break-even 51.5%Posted - 4
Spread Timberwolves +8.5 −112
Timberwolves at Rockets 8:30 PM ET
The book has +8.5, and our fair line is Timberwolves +3.5.Steven Adams is out for the Rockets.
Wide edge +11.8Our chance 64.6%, break-even 52.8%Posted - 5
Total Under 232.5 −110
Hawks at Wizards 7:00 PM ET
Our total comes to 226.7, with 232.5 posted at the book.In possessions a game, the pace ranks are Hawks 4th, Wizards 24th.
Wide edge +10.1Our chance 62.5%, break-even 52.4%Posted - 6
Total Under 233.5 −105
Bulls at Knicks 7:30 PM ET
Our total is 229.8, and the book has 233.5.The pace ranks show Bulls 1st, Knicks 25th for possessions a game.
Wide edge +6.7Our chance 58.0%, break-even 51.2%Posted - 7
Total Over 220.5 −106
Timberwolves at Rockets 8:30 PM ET
We set our total at 224.1, while the book shows 220.5.For possessions a game, the pace ranks are Timberwolves 7th, Rockets 29th.
Wide edge +6.3Our chance 57.8%, break-even 51.5%Posted - 8
Spread Nets +3.5 −110
Hornets at Nets 7:30 PM ET
The book has +3.5, and our fair line is Nets +0.5.Kon Knueppel and Grant Williams are out for the Hornets.
Wide edge +6.2Our chance 58.6%, break-even 52.4%Posted - 9
Spread Celtics -11.5 −112
Bucks at Celtics 7:30 PM ET
We have Celtics -14.5 as our fair line, with -11.5 at the book.Per game, the point differential is Celtics +5.9 and Bucks -13.0.
Clear edge +5.6Our chance 58.4%, break-even 52.8%Posted - 10
Spread Grizzlies -7.5 −103
Pacers at Grizzlies 8:00 PM ET
The book shows -7.5, and our fair line is Grizzlies -9.5.For the Pacers, 4 are out, including Ivica Zubac and Obi Toppin.
Clear edge +5.5Our chance 56.2%, break-even 50.7%Posted - 11
Spread Hawks -2.5 −104
Hawks at Wizards 7:00 PM ET
The book has -2.5, and our fair line is Hawks -4.For the Wizards, 3 are out, including Reece Beekman and Tristan Vukcevic.
Clear edge +3.7Our chance 54.7%, break-even 51.0%Posted - 12
Total Under 213.5 −106
Hornets at Nets 7:30 PM ET
We set our total at 211.1, while the book lists 213.5.Possessions a game: pace ranks are Hornets 30th, Nets 12th.
Clear edge +3.7Our chance 55.1%, break-even 51.5%Posted - 13
Spread Mavericks +11.5 −115
Mavericks at Spurs 9:30 PM ET
Our fair line sits at Mavericks +9, while the book has +11.5.The Spurs are without Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance.
Clear edge +3.4Our chance 56.9%, break-even 53.5%Posted - 14
Spread Thunder -2.5 −105
Cavaliers at Thunder 8:00 PM ET
The book has -2.5, and our fair line is Thunder -4.Jaylon Tyson and Peyton Watson are out for the Cavaliers.
Clear edge +3.0Our chance 54.2%, break-even 51.2%Posted
Today's NBA parlay
| Leg | Pick | Price | Our chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat at Clippers 10:30 PM ET | Spread Clippers +5.5 | −111 | 68.6% |
| Raptors at Nuggets 9:00 PM ET | Spread Raptors +4.5 | −110 | 66.0% |
If both legs win, $10 returns $36.29 on Parlay +263. We put the chance at 45.3%, and the break-even chance is 27.6%.
These come from different games, and they use the logged lines for the two widest edges. Since separate games are treated as independent, we multiply the two chances.