Skip to the picks
nbapickstoday

Today's NBA computer picks

Every pick our ratings model makes on the 14 games of Wednesday, November 4: spread, total and moneyline, each with the chance behind it and the price it beats.

Live record 42 picks posted graded after the finalsLedger since November 4 never edited
Today's NBA computer picks
TipGameWin %SpreadTotalKalshiOur picks
ESPN76ers7-1Pistons6-129.670.3+2.5−2.5fair −7.5218.5fair 216.745¢55¢Pistons -2.5 −106Wide edgeUnder 218.5 −110Slim edgePreview, injuries, stats
Hawks4-4Wizards4-361.738.3−2.5+2.5fair +4232.5fair 226.758¢42¢Hawks -2.5 −104Clear edgeUnder 232.5 −110Wide edgePreview, injuries, stats
Bucks1-6Celtics5-215.085.0+11.5−11.5fair −14.5225.5fair 225.219¢81¢Celtics -11.5 −112Clear edgeUnder 225.5 −115No edgePreview, injuries, stats
Hornets3-5Nets1-651.348.7−3.5+3.5fair +0.5213.5fair 211.160¢40¢Nets +3.5 −110Wide edgeUnder 213.5 −106Clear edgePreview, injuries, stats
Bulls1-6Knicks3-418.281.8+11.5−11.5fair −12.5233.5fair 229.817¢83¢Knicks -11.5 −115No edgeUnder 233.5 −105Wide edgePreview, injuries, stats
Pacers2-6Grizzlies6-124.575.5+7.5−7.5fair −9.5228.5fair 230.232¢68¢Grizzlies -7.5 −103Clear edgeOver 228.5 −115Slim edgePreview, injuries, stats
Jazz1-6Pelicans3-430.070.0+5.5−5.5fair −7.5234.5fair 236.734¢66¢Pelicans -5.5 −110Slim edgeOver 234.5 −115Slim edgePreview, injuries, stats
Cavaliers4-3Thunder5-238.861.2+2.5−2.5fair −4228.5fair 226.541¢59¢Thunder -2.5 −105Clear edgeUnder 228.5 −115Slim edgePreview, injuries, stats
Timberwolves5-3Rockets7-140.859.2+8.5−8.5fair −3.5220.5fair 224.129¢71¢Timberwolves +8.5 −112Wide edgeOver 220.5 −106Wide edgePreview, injuries, stats
Raptors4-3Nuggets3-353.646.4+4.5−4.5fair +1.5230.5fair 229.937¢63¢Raptors +4.5 −110Wide edgeUnder 230.5 −115No edgePreview, injuries, stats
Trail Blazers5-1Suns1-463.836.2−3.5+3.5fair +5227.5fair 227.357¢43¢Trail Blazers -3.5 −109Slim edgeUnder 227.5 −108No edgePreview, injuries, stats
ESPNMavericks4-3Spurs5-225.874.2+11.5−11.5fair −9227.5fair 226.318¢82¢Mavericks +11.5 −115Clear edgeUnder 227.5 −111Slim edgePreview, injuries, stats
Lakers6-2Kings1-678.821.2−11.5+11.5fair +11234.5fair 234.983¢17¢Kings +11.5 −114No edgeOver 234.5 −110No edgePreview, injuries, stats
Heat2-5Clippers1-646.353.7−5.5+5.5fair −1.5233.5fair 233.964¢36¢Clippers +5.5 −111Wide edgeOver 233.5 −114No edgePreview, injuries, stats

NBA picks and win probability for each game

76ers at Pistons

  • SpreadPistons -2.5 −106Model 63.9% vs 51.5% to break evenWide edge +12.4Posted
  • TotalUnder 218.5 −110Model 54.0% vs 52.4% to break evenSlim edge +1.6Posted
  • MoneylinePistons to win −130Model 70.3% vs 56.5% to break evenWide edge +13.8Posted

Hawks at Wizards

  • SpreadHawks -2.5 −104Model 54.7% vs 51.0% to break evenClear edge +3.7Posted
  • TotalUnder 232.5 −110Model 62.5% vs 52.4% to break evenWide edge +10.1Posted
  • MoneylineHawks to win −142Model 61.7% vs 58.7% to break evenClear edge +3.0Posted

Bucks at Celtics

  • SpreadCeltics -11.5 −112Model 58.4% vs 52.8% to break evenClear edge +5.6Posted
  • TotalUnder 225.5 −115Model 50.7% vs 53.5% to break evenNo edge −2.7Posted
  • MoneylineCeltics to win −567Model 85.0% vs 85.0% to break evenNo edge 0.0Posted

Hornets at Nets

  • SpreadNets +3.5 −110Model 58.6% vs 52.4% to break evenWide edge +6.2Posted
  • TotalUnder 213.5 −106Model 55.1% vs 51.5% to break evenClear edge +3.7Posted
  • MoneylineNets to win +136Model 48.7% vs 42.4% to break evenWide edge +6.3Posted

Bulls at Knicks

  • SpreadKnicks -11.5 −115Model 53.5% vs 53.5% to break evenNo edge 0.0Posted
  • TotalUnder 233.5 −105Model 58.0% vs 51.2% to break evenWide edge +6.7Posted
  • MoneylineBulls to win +443Model 18.2% vs 18.4% to break evenNo edge −0.3Posted

Pacers at Grizzlies

  • SpreadGrizzlies -7.5 −103Model 56.2% vs 50.7% to break evenClear edge +5.5Posted
  • TotalOver 228.5 −115Model 53.7% vs 53.5% to break evenSlim edge +0.2Posted
  • MoneylineGrizzlies to win −265Model 75.5% vs 72.6% to break evenSlim edge +2.9Posted

Jazz at Pelicans

  • SpreadPelicans -5.5 −110Model 55.2% vs 52.4% to break evenSlim edge +2.8Posted
  • TotalOver 234.5 −115Model 54.9% vs 53.5% to break evenSlim edge +1.4Posted
  • MoneylinePelicans to win −217Model 70.0% vs 68.5% to break evenSlim edge +1.5Posted

Cavaliers at Thunder

  • SpreadThunder -2.5 −105Model 54.2% vs 51.2% to break evenClear edge +3.0Posted
  • TotalUnder 228.5 −115Model 54.4% vs 53.5% to break evenSlim edge +0.9Posted
  • MoneylineThunder to win −135Model 61.2% vs 57.4% to break evenClear edge +3.8Posted

Timberwolves at Rockets

  • SpreadTimberwolves +8.5 −112Model 64.6% vs 52.8% to break evenWide edge +11.8Posted
  • TotalOver 220.5 −106Model 57.8% vs 51.5% to break evenWide edge +6.3Posted
  • MoneylineTimberwolves to win +251Model 40.8% vs 28.5% to break evenWide edge +12.3Posted

Raptors at Nuggets

  • SpreadRaptors +4.5 −110Model 66.0% vs 52.4% to break evenWide edge +13.6Posted
  • TotalUnder 230.5 −115Model 51.4% vs 53.5% to break evenNo edge −2.1Posted
  • MoneylineRaptors to win +160Model 53.6% vs 38.5% to break evenWide edge +15.1Posted

Trail Blazers at Suns

  • SpreadTrail Blazers -3.5 −109Model 54.1% vs 52.2% to break evenSlim edge +2.0Posted
  • TotalUnder 227.5 −108Model 50.4% vs 51.9% to break evenNo edge −1.5Posted
  • MoneylineTrail Blazers to win −155Model 63.8% vs 60.8% to break evenClear edge +3.0Posted

Mavericks at Spurs

  • SpreadMavericks +11.5 −115Model 56.9% vs 53.5% to break evenClear edge +3.4Posted
  • TotalUnder 227.5 −111Model 52.7% vs 52.6% to break evenSlim edge +0.1Posted
  • MoneylineMavericks to win +411Model 25.9% vs 19.6% to break evenWide edge +6.3Posted

Lakers at Kings

  • SpreadKings +11.5 −114Model 50.9% vs 53.3% to break evenNo edge −2.3Posted
  • TotalOver 234.5 −110Model 51.0% vs 52.4% to break evenNo edge −1.4Posted
  • MoneylineKings to win +429Model 21.2% vs 18.9% to break evenSlim edge +2.3Posted

Heat at Clippers

  • SpreadClippers +5.5 −111Model 68.6% vs 52.6% to break evenWide edge +16.0Posted
  • TotalOver 233.5 −114Model 50.9% vs 53.3% to break evenNo edge −2.4Posted
  • MoneylineClippers to win +171Model 53.7% vs 36.9% to break evenWide edge +16.8Posted

The same picks ranked by edge